Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 0.198284 0.222790 0.249282 0.280073 0.314905 0.353124 0.398284
2025-11-23 0.156543 0.188110 0.224707 0.270361 0.325917 0.391493 0.475008
2025-11-30 0.132581 0.169176 0.214349 0.274424 0.352548 0.451148 0.585733
2025-12-07 0.108262 0.145803 0.194839 0.263950 0.359446 0.487624 0.674180
2025-12-14 0.091250 0.129139 0.181279 0.258833 0.372237 0.533509 0.782922
2025-12-21 0.077833 0.115285 0.169356 0.253900 0.384220 0.579858 0.900249
2025-12-28 0.069751 0.107836 0.165369 0.259684 0.412560 0.654280 1.072607
2026-01-04 0.061238 0.098452 0.157045 0.257377 0.427741 0.710412 1.225524
2026-01-11 0.054935 0.091629 0.151706 0.258915 0.449191 0.779793 1.412919
2026-01-18 0.050161 0.086631 0.148593 0.263598 0.476533 0.863255 1.640244
2026-01-25 0.043735 0.077917 0.137949 0.253378 0.475415 0.895174 1.776199
2026-02-01 0.038113 0.069891 0.127455 0.241859 0.469954 0.917791 1.897467
2026-02-08 0.033959 0.064158 0.120633 0.236787 0.477174 0.968160 2.089901
2026-02-15 0.030242 0.058779 0.113795 0.230721 0.481535 1.013711 2.281829
2026-02-22 0.028191 0.056390 0.112459 0.235675 0.509848 1.114791 2.620272
2026-03-01 0.025107 0.051526 0.105525 0.227805 0.509014 1.151791 2.815709
2026-03-08 0.022796 0.047973 0.100846 0.224165 0.517157 1.210735 3.078010
2026-03-15 0.020753 0.044735 0.096423 0.220448 0.524521 1.269137 3.351718
2026-03-22 0.019643 0.043394 0.095958 0.225813 0.554641 1.388550 3.814945
2026-03-29 0.018131 0.040961 0.092732 0.224095 0.566805 1.464503 4.174228
2026-04-05 0.016987 0.039238 0.090927 0.225620 0.587626 1.567081 4.634773
2026-04-12 0.016111 0.038040 0.090213 0.229813 0.616294 1.696389 5.207037
2026-04-19 0.014575 0.035068 0.084836 0.221069 0.608009 1.720162 5.453450